Gartner recently released their 2014 Hype Cycle for emerging technologies. Gamification is mentioned, as in the previous editions of 2013, 2012 and 2011 (gamification was not in the 2010 edition).
|Gamification in the 2014 Gartner Hype Cycle|
See A Brief History of Gamification: Part VI- The Predictions, to watch the evolution of gamification in the hype cycle since 2011.
|Evolution of Gamification in the Gartner Hype Cycle|
As expected, gamification is now on the "Through of Disillusionment", with a prediction to reach the "Plateau of Productivity" in two to five years. As Mario Herger puts, this is not a "bad thing":
Here [the "Through of Disillusionment"] we have realized that it is ‘just a technology’ with good qualities which has promising opportunities but turned out not the be the solution for everything. Technologies in this state are often regarded with a lot of criticism (‘’see, told you that it wouldn’t work”) until the real proper application is found and it fights its way back up the slope of enlightenment onwards to a plateau of productivity.
So, gamification seems to be on its journey to become an effective technology. It is expected that in two years it might be in the "Slope of Enlightenment".